ECONOMIC IGNOMINY: MTFF TO THE RESCUE?

The need for the removal of fuel subsidy has not been adequately and effectively communicated to the vast majority of Nigerians. On the face of it, this removal will simply add to the woes of the people, who are already being weighed down on all fronts by the harsh realities of long-standing epidemic of economic and financial mismanagement. Is it right and proper to treat Nigerians like a herd of sheep in the 21^st century? Or have the people been adjudged not to have the requisite understanding of what may be required to bring a semblance of sanity to the way their economy is managed? Methinks it is criminally condescending, and patently preposterous, to ignore the need to articulate the need for this subsidy removal to the populace.

While I am wholeheartedly (circumspective consideration is not an option for me here!) in favour of this in principle (as large-scale subsidies, such as this, have no place in modern-day microeconomic policy management), I am not minutely convinced that the overriding Medium Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF) can achieve its noble objectives. My pessimism stems from the fact that the foundation for such an applaudable policy direction is decidedly unsound. Insofar as there is a distinct lack of political and moral courage to fight the cancer that is large-scale corruption (at all levels of government), no policy initiative can stick. The idea may be good and the intentions admirable, but the obdurate clog in our wheel of progress is corruption; it has to be disabled and extricated in its entirety. It is foolhardy to expect Nigerians to make sacrifices when they believe (with total justification) that some pea-brained scroungers are well positioned to, in the final analysis, make such sacrifices worthless.

It has been proposed that the N1.2 trillion savings from the subsidy removal will be accruable to the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). Without attempting to cast aspersions on anyone’s integrity, the track record of the management of such a fund does not inspire an iota of confidence. There has to be credibility at the heart of government for Nigerians to have a modicum of confidence in any policy initiative and direction.

The volatile income profile nature of our main export, oil, can no longer be blamed for our lack of discernible progress. It is drab to continue to blame exogenous factors for our inability to think outside the box and reconfigure, and reposition, our economy the way countries are doing the entire world over.

In short, for the MTFF to have any hope of achieving its goals, some of its characteristics have to find their ways into the psyche of the proponents: the process has to be results-focused; policy priorities should drive funding, not the other way round; there should be mechanisms in place to palliate the effects of any measures (like the removal of fuel subsidy) necessary for their implementation. Above all, there should be absolute transparency, which is why the establishment of a truly independent Public Expenditure Review Body (PERB) is a non-negotiable imperative. The PERB must be established in law and be constituted by SUPERB (no pun intended!) individuals of unimpeachable character from all walks of life, and it must have the powers to summon ANY individual it may deem fit for whatever reasons. It must also have the powers, enshrined in law, to prosecute and recover misappropriated funds. The era of uncompleted and inflated projects should be over.

With all of these in place, Nigerians may then be reasonably expected to partner the government in this direction, as the benefits of such partnership will be much clearer, and thus, enduring.